Which Prediction Market Operators Are Live in the US Right Now?
Seven operators account for most of the category's US volume as of August 23, 2026: Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX, DraftKings Predictions, Robinhood's event-contract product, and a reported CME and FanDuel venture.
| Operator | Status | Regulatory basis |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Operating nationally, fighting state actions in multiple jurisdictions | CFTC-designated contract market since November 2020 |
| Polymarket | Relaunched in the US between December 2025 and May 2026, under a CFTC marketing-practices inquiry opened in June 2026 | CFTC-approved designated contract market via its QCX acquisition, July 2025 |
| Novig | Live nationwide since August 4, 2026 | CFTC designated contract market approval, June 2026 |
| ProphetX | Reported live in 49 states per a single trade publication, not yet confirmed against a primary source | CFTC designated contract market approval, reported June 2026 |
| DraftKings Predictions | Live, rolling out state by state | Entered the category through its acquisition of the CFTC-registered Railbird Exchange |
| Robinhood event contracts | Live in all 50 states | Operates on Kalshi's CFTC-regulated exchange infrastructure |
Is Kalshi Legal in My State?
The answer depends on which state, and it changes by the week. Washington's King County Superior Court issued a final order on August 13, 2026 restricting most of Kalshi's operations there, while a federal judge blocked Minnesota's outright ban in late July 2026 and the CFTC used emergency authority on August 11, 2026 to order Kalshi to keep operating in New York despite a state lawsuit seeking to shut it down.
| State | Status | Latest action |
|---|---|---|
| Washington | Final order restricts most Kalshi operations | Geofence required by September 2, 2026, or a $120,000-per-day penalty, per the Washington Attorney General's August 13, 2026 release |
| New York | State sued to shut Kalshi down; CFTC ordered it to keep operating | CFTC emergency order, August 11, 2026 |
| Minnesota | Federal injunction blocks the state's ban, reportedly on appeal | Injunction granted late July 2026, per Courthouse News |
| Michigan | State temporary restraining order paused sports contracts; CFTC ordered existing trades honored | CFTC order, July 14, 2026 |
| Arizona | Federal injunction blocks state prosecution | Reported May 2026 |
How Do ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, and Google AI Overviews Compare?
Google AI Overviews and Perplexity score highest on legal currency in 5W's modeling because both are search-grounded by default, while ChatGPT scores lowest because it does not always invoke browsing without an explicit prompt cue.
| Engine | Retrieval basis | Currency score |
|---|---|---|
| Google AI Overviews | Always search-grounded by construction | 88 |
| Perplexity | Search-grounded by default, cites sources directly | 85 |
| Claude, search enabled | Invokes search contextually for time-sensitive queries | 90 |
| Gemini | Search grounding common but not guaranteed on every query | 78 |
| ChatGPT | Browsing not always invoked without an explicit cue | 65 |
| Claude, no search | Training knowledge only, the cold-pass baseline | 45 |
The gap between Claude's warm score of 90 and its cold score of 45 is the largest spread in the table. The model and its reasoning are identical in both conditions. The only variable is whether search was live, which isolates the effect of retrieval from the effect of model quality.
90Claude, search enabled (warm)What Happened When Kalshi Fought Washington State?
King County Superior Court Judge John McHale signed a final order on August 13, 2026 barring Kalshi from offering or advertising sports, elections, politics, and culture contracts to Washington residents, while leaving commodities, climate, economics, and finance contracts unaffected, per the Washington Attorney General's press release. Kalshi must geofence Washington residents by September 2, 2026, or face a penalty of $120,000 per day.
This is a stronger proof case for testing AI currency than the injunctions in Arizona or Minnesota, because those blocked state action against the platform and left Kalshi operating, while Washington's order is final, adverse to Kalshi, and carries a specific, checkable deadline. An AI answer to "is Kalshi legal in Washington" can be tested against a single, falsifiable fact: does it reflect this order as of the date it is asked.
What This Means for Prediction Market Operators and the Firms Advising Them
An operator's AI-facing content needs a publication date on every legal claim, because a claim without a date cannot be checked for staleness by a reader or a model. Sportsbooks watching prediction markets encroach on sports-betting search queries should track this category's AI visibility the same way they track sportsbook competitors, since the same users are asking the same questions of the same AI engines. Regulatory and compliance teams should treat their own press releases as retrieval targets, not just legal notices, because AI systems training on this category are already learning vocabulary directly from CFTC and state attorney general filings.
5W runs AI Search and Generative Engine Optimization programs for brands operating in contested regulatory categories, building the dated, sourced, machine-readable content that keeps an AI answer current as the underlying facts change. Learn more about 5W's Generative Engine Optimization services.
