Kalshi: 237/288 returned four-engine answers (82.3%; 95% interval 77.5–86.3%). The two leading intervals overlap; no sole leader is established. Without all seven named Core questions, Kalshi and Polymarket remain the leading pair, each named in 185/204 chat answers; their Wilson intervals overlap, so no sole leader is established.
AI VISIBILITY INDEX
Prediction Markets Index 2.0: Kalshi and Polymarket Lead
Published August 24, 2026 · Updated November 11, 2026
288
AI answers analyzed across ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Perplexity
82.3%
of answers named Kalshi, the most-named (237 of 288)
19
tracked platforms named at least once (of 19)
92.8%
of Google searches showed an AI Overview (64 of 69)
Version 2. This version replaces the first version of this study, first published August 24, 2026. It uses measured counts, so the two versions are not comparable. Version 2 asks 24 questions three times each on ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Perplexity (288 answers) and adds Google AI Overviews. Every rate comes with its count and a 95% interval.
What the data shows
01
Kalshi
Kalshi: 237/288 returned four-engine answers (82.3%; 95% interval 77.5–86.3%). The two leading intervals overlap; no sole leader is established. Without all seven named Core questions, Kalshi and Polymarket remain the leading pair, each named in 185/204 chat answers; their Wilson intervals overlap, so no sole leader is established.
02
177/288 (61.5%)
Kalshi was the first platform named in 177 of 288 answers, more than any other tracked platform. Its average first position was 1.5.
03
31/72 (43.1%)
Gemini named Interactive Brokers in 31 of 72 answers. The other engines named it in 4 to 15 of 72.
04
32/72 (44.4%)
Gemini named ForecastEx in 32 of 72 answers. The other engines named it in 7 to 21 of 72.
05
52/288 (18.1%)
Kalshi's own domains were cited in 52 of 288 grounded answers, more than any other tracked platform. Polymarket followed at 27 of 288. 6 of 19 tracked platforms had 0 of 288.
06
64/69 (92.8%)
Google AI Overviews appeared on 64 of 69 searches (CI 84.1–96.9%). On the other 5, no overview was shown.
07
50/64 (78.1%)
Kalshi was the platform named most often in AI Overviews, at 50 of 64, followed by Polymarket at 39 of 64 (60.9%). In the four-engine set, Kalshi was named in 237 of 288 answers (82.3%).
08
25/288 (8.7%)
robinhood.com received the most citation links, 71 of 2,358 (3%), across 25 of 288 grounded answers (8.7%). cbssports.com appeared in the most answers, 62 of 288 (21.5%).
Appearance rate across 288 four-engine answers. The bar is the 95% confidence interval; overlapping bars cannot be told apart at this sample size.
Which platforms AI engines name
Kalshi
82.3%
Polymarket
74.0%
Robinhood
35.1%
FanDuel Predicts
27.8%
Crypto.com
26.7%
DraftKings Predictions
26.0%
PredictIt
25.7%
ForecastEx
24.7%
Novig
20.5%
Interactive Brokers
19.4%
Underdog
15.3%
CME Group
14.6%
ProphetX
10.4%
Manifold
10.1%
Coinbase
8.0%
| # | Name | Named in | Appearance rate | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalshi | 237/288 | 82.3% | 77.5–86.3% |
| 2 | Polymarket | 213/288 | 74.0% | 68.6–78.7% |
| 3 | Robinhood | 101/288 | 35.1% | 29.8–40.7% |
| 4 | FanDuel Predicts | 80/288 | 27.8% | 22.9–33.2% |
| 5 | Crypto.com | 77/288 | 26.7% | 22.0–32.1% |
| 6 | DraftKings Predictions | 75/288 | 26.0% | 21.3–31.4% |
| 7 | PredictIt | 74/288 | 25.7% | 21.0–31.0% |
| 8 | ForecastEx | 71/288 | 24.7% | 20.0–29.9% |
| 9 | Novig | 59/288 | 20.5% | 16.2–25.5% |
| 10 | Interactive Brokers | 56/288 | 19.4% | 15.3–24.4% |
| 11 | Underdog | 44/288 | 15.3% | 11.6–19.9% |
| 12 | CME Group | 42/288 | 14.6% | 11.0–19.1% |
| 13 | ProphetX | 30/288 | 10.4% | 7.4–14.5% |
| 14 | Manifold | 29/288 | 10.1% | 7.1–14.1% |
| 15 | Coinbase | 23/288 | 8.0% | 5.4–11.7% |
The full list
Own-domain citation is the share of 288 grounded answers that cited the tracked name's own domains (subdomains included). Citation share is of all 2,358 citations. Seven Core questions name tracked platforms, so those counts include answers that name them by design: Q2 "Is Kalshi legal?" names Kalshi; Q3 "Is Polymarket available in the US?" names Polymarket; Q4 "Is Kalshi gambling or a financial product?" names Kalshi; Q5 "Kalshi vs Polymarket: which is better?" names Kalshi and Polymarket; Q9 "Is Kalshi legal in New York?" names Kalshi; Q10 "What is Novig?" names Novig; Q11 "Does Robinhood offer event contracts?" names Robinhood. Without them: Kalshi 237/288 (rank 1) becomes 185/204 (rank 1); Polymarket 213/288 (rank 2) becomes 185/204 (rank 2); Novig 59/288 (rank 9) becomes 47/204 (rank 10); Robinhood 101/288 (rank 3) becomes 88/204 (rank 3). The top-five order changes: Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com, FanDuel Predicts.
| # | Brand | Named in | Appearance rate | 95% interval | First mention | Own-domain citation | Citation share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalshi | 237/288 | 82.3% | 77.5–86.3% | 1.5 | 18.1% (52/288) | 2.6% |
| 2 | Polymarket | 213/288 | 74% | 68.6–78.7% | 2.6 | 9.4% (27/288) | 1.5% |
| 3 | Robinhood | 101/288 | 35.1% | 29.8–40.7% | 3.8 | 8.7% (25/288) | 3.1% |
| 4 | FanDuel Predicts | 80/288 | 27.8% | 22.9–33.2% | 4.1 | 0% (0/288) | 0% |
| 5 | Crypto.com | 77/288 | 26.7% | 22–32.1% | 4.7 | 0% (0/288) | 0% |
| 6 | DraftKings Predictions | 75/288 | 26% | 21.3–31.4% | 4 | 0.3% (1/288) | 0% |
| 7 | PredictIt | 74/288 | 25.7% | 21–31% | 4 | 2.8% (8/288) | 0.3% |
| 8 | ForecastEx | 71/288 | 24.7% | 20–29.9% | 4.1 | 1.4% (4/288) | 0.2% |
| 9 | Novig | 59/288 | 20.5% | 16.2–25.5% | 3.8 | 4.2% (12/288) | 0.8% |
| 10 | Interactive Brokers | 56/288 | 19.4% | 15.3–24.4% | 3.7 | 7.3% (21/288) | 0.9% |
| 11 | Underdog | 44/288 | 15.3% | 11.6–19.9% | 5.9 | 0% (0/288) | 0% |
| 12 | CME Group | 42/288 | 14.6% | 11–19.1% | 3.5 | 4.9% (14/288) | 0.6% |
| 13 | ProphetX | 30/288 | 10.4% | 7.4–14.5% | 5.3 | 0% (0/288) | 0% |
| 14 | Manifold | 29/288 | 10.1% | 7.1–14.1% | 3.8 | 2.4% (7/288) | 0.3% |
| 15 | Coinbase | 23/288 | 8% | 5.4–11.7% | 6.1 | 0.3% (1/288) | 0% |
| 16 | Metaculus | 18/288 | 6.3% | 4–9.7% | 2.6 | 1% (3/288) | 0.2% |
| 17 | Webull | 18/288 | 6.3% | 4–9.7% | 6.3 | 0.3% (1/288) | 0% |
| 18 | PrizePicks | 13/288 | 4.5% | 2.7–7.6% | 6.8 | 0% (0/288) | 0% |
| 19 | Sporttrade | 5/288 | 1.7% | 0.7–4% | 5 | 0% (0/288) | 0% |
Question group: Prediction market platforms
84 returned four-engine answers to this group's 7 questions. No pooled group leader is asserted.
| # | Name | Named answers | Rate | 95% interval | Named first |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polymarket | 74/84 | 88.1% | 79.5–93.4% | 18 |
| 2 | Kalshi | 69/84 | 82.1% | 72.6–88.9% | 42 |
| 3 | PredictIt | 32/84 | 38.1% | 28.4–48.8% | 0 |
| 4 | Novig | 29/84 | 34.5% | 25.2–45.2% | 12 |
| 5 | Manifold | 19/84 | 22.6% | 15.0–32.6% | 0 |
| 6 | Metaculus | 16/84 | 19.0% | 12.1–28.7% | 12 |
| 7 | Crypto.com | 15/84 | 17.9% | 11.1–27.4% | 0 |
| 8 | FanDuel Predicts | 14/84 | 16.7% | 10.2–26.1% | 0 |
| 9 | Robinhood | 14/84 | 16.7% | 10.2–26.1% | 0 |
| 10 | DraftKings Predictions | 11/84 | 13.1% | 7.5–21.9% | 0 |
| 11 | ProphetX | 11/84 | 13.1% | 7.5–21.9% | 0 |
| 12 | Underdog | 11/84 | 13.1% | 7.5–21.9% | 0 |
| 13 | ForecastEx | 10/84 | 11.9% | 6.6–20.5% | 0 |
| 14 | Interactive Brokers | 7/84 | 8.3% | 4.1–16.2% | 0 |
| 15 | Coinbase | 3/84 | 3.6% | 1.2–10.0% | 0 |
| 16 | CME Group | 1/84 | 1.2% | 0.2–6.4% | 0 |
| 17 | PrizePicks | 0/84 | 0.0% | 0.0–4.4% | 0 |
| 18 | Sporttrade | 0/84 | 0.0% | 0.0–4.4% | 0 |
| 19 | Webull | 0/84 | 0.0% | 0.0–4.4% | 0 |
Question group: Legality and regulation questions
72 returned four-engine answers to this group's 6 questions. No pooled group leader is asserted.
| # | Name | Named answers | Rate | 95% interval | Named first |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalshi | 57/72 | 79.2% | 68.4–86.9% | 57 |
| 2 | Polymarket | 35/72 | 48.6% | 37.4–59.9% | 12 |
| 3 | Robinhood | 16/72 | 22.2% | 14.2–33.1% | 2 |
| 4 | Crypto.com | 15/72 | 20.8% | 13.1–31.6% | 0 |
| 5 | ForecastEx | 10/72 | 13.9% | 7.7–23.7% | 0 |
| 6 | DraftKings Predictions | 9/72 | 12.5% | 6.7–22.1% | 0 |
| 7 | PredictIt | 8/72 | 11.1% | 5.7–20.4% | 0 |
| 8 | Underdog | 8/72 | 11.1% | 5.7–20.4% | 0 |
| 9 | Interactive Brokers | 7/72 | 9.7% | 4.8–18.7% | 0 |
| 10 | FanDuel Predicts | 6/72 | 8.3% | 3.9–17.0% | 1 |
| 11 | Coinbase | 5/72 | 6.9% | 3.0–15.2% | 0 |
| 12 | CME Group | 4/72 | 5.6% | 2.2–13.4% | 0 |
| 13 | Novig | 3/72 | 4.2% | 1.4–11.5% | 0 |
| 14 | Webull | 2/72 | 2.8% | 0.8–9.6% | 0 |
| 15 | Manifold | 0/72 | 0.0% | 0.0–5.1% | 0 |
| 16 | Metaculus | 0/72 | 0.0% | 0.0–5.1% | 0 |
| 17 | PrizePicks | 0/72 | 0.0% | 0.0–5.1% | 0 |
| 18 | ProphetX | 0/72 | 0.0% | 0.0–5.1% | 0 |
| 19 | Sporttrade | 0/72 | 0.0% | 0.0–5.1% | 0 |
Question group: Sports event contracts
36 returned four-engine answers to this group's 3 questions. No pooled group leader is asserted.
| # | Name | Named answers | Rate | 95% interval | Named first |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polymarket | 31/36 | 86.1% | 71.3–93.9% | 3 |
| 2 | Kalshi | 27/36 | 75.0% | 58.9–86.2% | 20 |
| 3 | FanDuel Predicts | 24/36 | 66.7% | 50.3–79.8% | 1 |
| 4 | DraftKings Predictions | 21/36 | 58.3% | 42.2–72.9% | 12 |
| 5 | Crypto.com | 19/36 | 52.8% | 37.0–68.0% | 0 |
| 6 | CME Group | 12/36 | 33.3% | 20.2–49.7% | 0 |
| 7 | Robinhood | 11/36 | 30.6% | 18.0–46.9% | 0 |
| 8 | Novig | 9/36 | 25.0% | 13.8–41.1% | 0 |
| 9 | ProphetX | 7/36 | 19.4% | 9.8–35.0% | 0 |
| 10 | Underdog | 7/36 | 19.4% | 9.8–35.0% | 0 |
| 11 | PrizePicks | 6/36 | 16.7% | 7.9–31.9% | 0 |
| 12 | Webull | 5/36 | 13.9% | 6.1–28.7% | 0 |
| 13 | ForecastEx | 4/36 | 11.1% | 4.4–25.3% | 0 |
| 14 | Interactive Brokers | 4/36 | 11.1% | 4.4–25.3% | 0 |
| 15 | Sporttrade | 4/36 | 11.1% | 4.4–25.3% | 0 |
| 16 | Coinbase | 3/36 | 8.3% | 2.9–21.8% | 0 |
| 17 | Manifold | 1/36 | 2.8% | 0.5–14.2% | 0 |
| 18 | Metaculus | 0/36 | 0.0% | 0.0–9.6% | 0 |
| 19 | PredictIt | 0/36 | 0.0% | 0.0–9.6% | 0 |
Question group: Economic and financial event contracts
36 returned four-engine answers to this group's 3 questions. No pooled group leader is asserted.
| # | Name | Named answers | Rate | 95% interval | Named first |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robinhood | 31/36 | 86.1% | 71.3–93.9% | 16 |
| 2 | ForecastEx | 28/36 | 77.8% | 61.9–88.3% | 0 |
| 3 | Kalshi | 26/36 | 72.2% | 56.0–84.2% | 12 |
| 4 | Interactive Brokers | 21/36 | 58.3% | 42.2–72.9% | 7 |
| 5 | CME Group | 20/36 | 55.6% | 39.6–70.5% | 1 |
| 6 | Crypto.com | 16/36 | 44.4% | 29.5–60.4% | 0 |
| 7 | Polymarket | 15/36 | 41.7% | 27.1–57.8% | 0 |
| 8 | Webull | 9/36 | 25.0% | 13.8–41.1% | 0 |
| 9 | Coinbase | 7/36 | 19.4% | 9.8–35.0% | 0 |
| 10 | Underdog | 4/36 | 11.1% | 4.4–25.3% | 0 |
| 11 | FanDuel Predicts | 3/36 | 8.3% | 2.9–21.8% | 0 |
| 12 | PrizePicks | 3/36 | 8.3% | 2.9–21.8% | 0 |
| 13 | Novig | 1/36 | 2.8% | 0.5–14.2% | 0 |
| 14 | DraftKings Predictions | 0/36 | 0.0% | 0.0–9.6% | 0 |
| 15 | Manifold | 0/36 | 0.0% | 0.0–9.6% | 0 |
| 16 | Metaculus | 0/36 | 0.0% | 0.0–9.6% | 0 |
| 17 | PredictIt | 0/36 | 0.0% | 0.0–9.6% | 0 |
| 18 | ProphetX | 0/36 | 0.0% | 0.0–9.6% | 0 |
| 19 | Sporttrade | 0/36 | 0.0% | 0.0–9.6% | 0 |
Question group: Comparisons with sportsbooks
36 returned four-engine answers to this group's 3 questions. No pooled group leader is asserted.
| # | Name | Named answers | Rate | 95% interval | Named first |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalshi | 34/36 | 94.4% | 81.9–98.5% | 22 |
| 2 | Polymarket | 34/36 | 94.4% | 81.9–98.5% | 3 |
| 3 | FanDuel Predicts | 26/36 | 72.2% | 56.0–84.2% | 0 |
| 4 | DraftKings Predictions | 25/36 | 69.4% | 53.1–82.0% | 5 |
| 5 | PredictIt | 18/36 | 50.0% | 34.5–65.5% | 5 |
| 6 | Novig | 17/36 | 47.2% | 32.0–63.0% | 0 |
| 7 | Underdog | 14/36 | 38.9% | 24.8–55.1% | 0 |
| 8 | ProphetX | 12/36 | 33.3% | 20.2–49.7% | 0 |
| 9 | Robinhood | 11/36 | 30.6% | 18.0–46.9% | 0 |
| 10 | Crypto.com | 6/36 | 16.7% | 7.9–31.9% | 0 |
| 11 | ForecastEx | 6/36 | 16.7% | 7.9–31.9% | 0 |
| 12 | Manifold | 5/36 | 13.9% | 6.1–28.7% | 0 |
| 13 | Interactive Brokers | 4/36 | 11.1% | 4.4–25.3% | 0 |
| 14 | PrizePicks | 4/36 | 11.1% | 4.4–25.3% | 0 |
| 15 | Coinbase | 2/36 | 5.6% | 1.5–18.1% | 0 |
| 16 | CME Group | 1/36 | 2.8% | 0.5–14.2% | 0 |
| 17 | Metaculus | 1/36 | 2.8% | 0.5–14.2% | 0 |
| 18 | Sporttrade | 1/36 | 2.8% | 0.5–14.2% | 0 |
| 19 | Webull | 0/36 | 0.0% | 0.0–9.6% | 0 |
Question group: Election and politics markets
24 returned four-engine answers to this group's 2 questions. No pooled group leader is asserted.
| # | Name | Named answers | Rate | 95% interval | Named first |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalshi | 24/24 | 100.0% | 86.2–100.0% | 24 |
| 2 | Polymarket | 24/24 | 100.0% | 86.2–100.0% | 0 |
| 3 | Robinhood | 18/24 | 75.0% | 55.1–88.0% | 0 |
| 4 | PredictIt | 16/24 | 66.7% | 46.7–82.0% | 0 |
| 5 | ForecastEx | 13/24 | 54.2% | 35.1–72.1% | 0 |
| 6 | Interactive Brokers | 13/24 | 54.2% | 35.1–72.1% | 0 |
| 7 | DraftKings Predictions | 9/24 | 37.5% | 21.2–57.3% | 0 |
| 8 | FanDuel Predicts | 7/24 | 29.2% | 14.9–49.2% | 0 |
| 9 | Crypto.com | 6/24 | 25.0% | 12.0–44.9% | 0 |
| 10 | CME Group | 4/24 | 16.7% | 6.7–35.9% | 0 |
| 11 | Manifold | 4/24 | 16.7% | 6.7–35.9% | 0 |
| 12 | Coinbase | 3/24 | 12.5% | 4.3–31.0% | 0 |
| 13 | Webull | 2/24 | 8.3% | 2.3–25.8% | 0 |
| 14 | Metaculus | 1/24 | 4.2% | 0.7–20.2% | 0 |
| 15 | Novig | 0/24 | 0.0% | 0.0–13.8% | 0 |
| 16 | PrizePicks | 0/24 | 0.0% | 0.0–13.8% | 0 |
| 17 | ProphetX | 0/24 | 0.0% | 0.0–13.8% | 0 |
| 18 | Sporttrade | 0/24 | 0.0% | 0.0–13.8% | 0 |
| 19 | Underdog | 0/24 | 0.0% | 0.0–13.8% | 0 |
The top eight, side by side
| # | Name | Appearance rate | Answers and interval | Other measures |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalshi | 82.3% | 237/288 answers · 95% CI 77.5–86.3% | first-mention position: 1.5; owned-domain citation (52/288): 18.1%; citation share: 2.6% |
| 2 | Polymarket | 74.0% | 213/288 answers · 95% CI 68.6–78.7% | first-mention position: 2.6; owned-domain citation (27/288): 9.4%; citation share: 1.5% |
| 3 | Robinhood | 35.1% | 101/288 answers · 95% CI 29.8–40.7% | first-mention position: 3.8; owned-domain citation (25/288): 8.7%; citation share: 3.1% |
| 4 | FanDuel Predicts | 27.8% | 80/288 answers · 95% CI 22.9–33.2% | first-mention position: 4.1; owned-domain citation (0/288): 0%; citation share: 0% |
| 5 | Crypto.com | 26.7% | 77/288 answers · 95% CI 22–32.1% | first-mention position: 4.7; owned-domain citation (0/288): 0%; citation share: 0% |
| 6 | DraftKings Predictions | 26.0% | 75/288 answers · 95% CI 21.3–31.4% | first-mention position: 4; owned-domain citation (1/288): 0.3%; citation share: 0% |
| 7 | PredictIt | 25.7% | 74/288 answers · 95% CI 21–31% | first-mention position: 4; owned-domain citation (8/288): 2.8%; citation share: 0.3% |
| 8 | ForecastEx | 24.7% | 71/288 answers · 95% CI 20–29.9% | first-mention position: 4.1; owned-domain citation (4/288): 1.4%; citation share: 0.2% |
Gemini named Interactive Brokers in 31 of 72 answers. The other engines named it in 4 to 15 of 72. Gemini named ForecastEx in 32 of 72 answers. The other engines named it in 7 to 21 of 72.
ChatGPT
72 asked · 72 returned · 72 grounded
Same questions, different answers
Kalshi
81.9%
Polymarket
73.6%
PredictIt
34.7%
FanDuel Predicts
25.0%
DraftKings Predictions
22.2%
Novig
18.1%
Claude
72 asked · 72 returned · 72 grounded
Kalshi
86.1%
Polymarket
79.2%
Crypto.com
45.8%
Robinhood
38.9%
FanDuel Predicts
29.2%
DraftKings Predictions
27.8%
Gemini
72 asked · 72 returned · 72 grounded
Kalshi
83.3%
Polymarket
72.2%
ForecastEx
44.4%
Interactive Brokers
43.1%
Robinhood
41.7%
PredictIt
36.1%
Perplexity
72 asked · 72 returned · 72 grounded
Kalshi
77.8%
Polymarket
70.8%
Robinhood
44.4%
Crypto.com
37.5%
FanDuel Predicts
33.3%
DraftKings Predictions
31.9%
Google AI Overviews were captured through 69 U.S. desktop searches and scored only where an overview appeared, so five-engine figures use 288 + 64 = 352 answers.
The fifth engine
93%
Trigger rate: 64 of 69 searches
Google AI Overviews appeared on 64 of 69 searches (92.8%, CI 84.1–96.9%). The other 5 searches showed no overview. Within the 64 overviews, Kalshi was named in 50 (78.1%), Polymarket was named in 39 (60.9%), Robinhood was named in 20 (31.3%), DraftKings Predictions was named in 14 (21.9%). youtube.com was the most-cited source, with 44 citations and an appearance in 19 of 64 overviews.
| Five-engine rank | Name | Five-engine rate | Four-engine rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalshi | 81.5% | 1 |
| 2 | Polymarket | 71.6% | 2 |
| 3 | Robinhood | 34.4% | 3 |
| 4 | FanDuel Predicts | 26.4% | 4 |
| 5 | DraftKings Predictions | 25.3% | 6 |
| 6 | Crypto.com | 23.9% | 5 |
| 7 | PredictIt | 21.6% | 7 |
| 8 | ForecastEx | 21.6% | 8 |
| 9 | Novig | 20.5% | 9 |
| 10 | Interactive Brokers | 17.9% | 10 |
Who each question surfaces first
Six questions from the set. Each tile uses that question's own four-engine answers as the denominator.
| Question | Leader | Next | AI Overview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q01 · 12 answers | Kalshi 100.0% | Polymarket 100.0%; Novig 91.7% | AI Overview shown on 3 of 3 searches |
| Q02 · 12 answers | Kalshi 100.0% | AI Overview shown on 3 of 3 searches | |
| Q03 · 12 answers | Polymarket 100.0% | AI Overview shown on 3 of 3 searches | |
| Q04 · 12 answers | Kalshi 100.0% | ForecastEx 8.3%; Interactive Brokers 8.3% | AI Overview shown on 3 of 3 searches |
| Q05 · 12 answers | Kalshi 100.0% | Polymarket 100.0%; Coinbase 8.3% | AI Overview shown on 3 of 3 searches |
| Q06 · 12 answers | Kalshi 100.0% | Polymarket 100.0%; PredictIt 66.7% | AI Overview shown on 3 of 3 searches |
The four engines produced 2,358 citations in total. robinhood.com was cited most often, with 71 citations (3%) across 25 answers. Next came cbssports.com (67), si.com (66), covers.com (60), sailgp.com (58), cftc.gov (50).
Four AI engines · share of 288 grounded answers
Most-cited domains
cbssports.com
21.5%
si.com
20.1%
covers.com
17.4%
sailgp.com
14.6%
foxsports.com
14.2%
actionnetwork.com
13.5%
kalshi.com
12.8%
defirate.com
12.8%
thelines.com
11.5%
en.wikipedia.org
10.1%
Google AI Overviews · share of 64 overviews
youtube.com
29.7%
si.com
18.8%
sailgp.com
10.9%
facebook.com
9.4%
foxsports.com
9.4%
saturdaydownsouth.com
9.4%
cbssports.com
7.8%
linkedin.com
7.8%
nerdwallet.com
7.8%
nextpredict.io
7.8%
Citation share by source type
Share of all citations by the type of site cited.
| Source type | Four AI engines (of 2,358 citations) | Google AI Overviews (of 206 citations) |
|---|---|---|
| Other / unclassified | 512 (21.7%) | 27 (13.1%) |
| Company / brand sites | 464 (19.7%) | 29 (14.1%) |
| General news / sports media | 391 (16.6%) | 44 (21.4%) |
| Review / comparison publishers | 288 (12.2%) | 10 (4.9%) |
| General news / business press | 191 (8.1%) | 11 (5.3%) |
| Trade / specialist press | 145 (6.1%) | 2 (1%) |
| Official / government | 102 (4.3%) | 9 (4.4%) |
| Community / social | 99 (4.2%) | 64 (31.1%) |
| Reference | 91 (3.9%) | 7 (3.4%) |
| Research / data providers | 45 (1.9%) | 0 (0%) |
| Institutions / trade bodies | 22 (0.9%) | 3 (1.5%) |
| Directories / rankings | 8 (0.3%) | 0 (0%) |
How can prediction market platforms improve their AI visibility?
These steps follow from the measured results above. They describe what the engines cited in this study and are not a guarantee of results.
| Step | What this study measured |
|---|---|
| Put your facts on your own domain. | Kalshi's own domains were cited in 18.1% of grounded answers, Polymarket's in 9.4% and Robinhood's in 8.7%. |
| Keep your facts accurate on the sites engines cite. | The most-cited sites other than the tracked names' own were cbssports.com (in 21.5% of grounded answers), si.com (20.1%), covers.com (17.4%), sailgp.com (14.6%) and foxsports.com (14.2%). General news and sports media supplied 16.6% of citations and review and comparison publishers 12.2%. |
| Check each engine separately. | Gemini named Interactive Brokers in 43.1% of answers against 5.6% on ChatGPT. Gemini named ForecastEx in 44.4% of answers against 9.7% on ChatGPT. |
| Watch names outside the tracked list. | Fanatics Markets (26 answers), Augur (14 answers) and Gemini Predictions (12 answers) were named often but were not tracked. |
| Re-run the same questions every month. | Compare counts and intervals, not ranks. The 24 questions are in the appendix. |
What AI answers
Which prediction market platforms appear in these AI answers?
Kalshi: 237/288 returned four-engine answers (82.3%; 95% interval 77.5–86.3%). The two leading intervals overlap; no sole leader is established.
Which tracked name is named first most often?
Kalshi was the first platform named in 177 of 288 answers, with an average first position of 1.5.
How often do Google AI Overviews appear for these questions?
An overview appeared on 64 of 69 searches (92.8%, CI 84.1–96.9%). Within those 64 overviews, Kalshi was named most often, in 50 (78.1%).
Which sources do the engines cite?
Across 2,358 four-engine citations, robinhood.com was cited most (71 citations, in 25 of 288 grounded answers), followed by cbssports.com (67 citations).
Do the four engines agree?
Only in part. Gemini named Interactive Brokers in 31 of 72 answers, against 4 to 15 of 72 on the other engines. Gemini named ForecastEx in 32 of 72 answers, against 7 to 21 of 72 on the other engines.
How this study was measured
24 questions × 3 runs each × 4 AI engines = 288 answers + 69 Google searches · 64 AI Overviews
24 questions asked three times on each of ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Perplexity, measured November 6 to 7, 2026. United States, English; Google retrieval uses desktop results. Models: gpt-5-mini, claude-sonnet-5-5, gemini-3.6-flash only, sonar-pro. Google AI Overviews come from DataForSEO, not inferred chat answers. Appearance counts returned text, including ungrounded answers; citation rates use grounded answers. Longer overlapping names suppress shorter ones; First mention is the earliest eligible name order. Own-domain rates include declared domains and subdomains; shared parent scopes may count for multiple names and cannot be summed as unique citations.
| Engine | Model IDs called | Asked | Returned | Grounded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT | gpt-5-mini | 72 | 72 | 72 |
| Claude | claude-sonnet-5-5 | 72 | 72 | 72 |
| Gemini | gemini-3.6-flash | 72 | 72 | 72 |
| Perplexity | sonar-pro | 72 | 72 | 72 |
| Google AI Overviews | DataForSEO Google SERP (live, advanced) | 69 | 64 shown | 64 |
Own-domain citations count a domain plus all its subdomains, with the same rule in every table.
Definitions
- Appearance rate: answers naming the tracked name ÷ answers returned, with Wilson 95% intervals.
- First mention: average order in which the tracked name first appears (1 = first).
- Own-domain citation: grounded answers citing the tracked name's domains ÷ grounded answers.
- Citation share: citations to the tracked name's domains ÷ all citations.
Limits
- Only 19 tracked platforms are ranked; results are not an exhaustive market ranking.
- Only the tracked platforms were scored. The untracked platforms named most often were Fanatics Markets (26 answers), Augur (14 answers) and Gemini Predictions (12 answers); regulators and places were not counted.
- 357 of 360 planned results were returned: 3 of 72 AI Overview lookups were excluded after three attempts because Google search retrieval failed or returned incomplete results. They are not counted as no-overview results.
- 69 successful Google searches: 64 overviews shown; 5 without an overview. Failures are excluded, not scored as zero.
- Source types use Company / brand sites only for verified official sites; other unresolved sites are Other / unclassified.
- Wilson 95% intervals are descriptive; overlapping leading intervals do not establish a sole leader. Measurements do not endorse medical, legal, financial or product claims.
- Legality questions are asked word for word; answers are not scored for accuracy. The index counts how often names appear and makes no legal or financial claim.
- Sportsbook-only mentions of DraftKings and FanDuel were not counted for their prediction-market products.
- Google Shopping and unresolved google.com/goto links are excluded from cited sources; original URLs remain in the evidence.
- Status: Polymarket operates in the US as Polymarket US through QCX, bought in July 2025; Coinbase has offered Kalshi event contracts since December 2025.
- Seven Core questions name Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig or Robinhood (listed under the full ranking table). Without them, Kalshi and Polymarket stay tied at 185 of 204 answers each.
- Answers were collected through each engine's API using the model IDs listed in the methodology. The consumer ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Perplexity apps can answer differently.
Appendix: The 24 questions
Questions marked "Core question" are the original study questions, asked word for word. The others are added neutral questions.
| # | Question | Group | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | What are the best prediction market apps in the US? | Prediction market platforms | Core question |
| 02 | Is Kalshi legal? | Legality and regulation questions | Core question |
| 03 | Is Polymarket available in the US? | Legality and regulation questions | Core question |
| 04 | Is Kalshi gambling or a financial product? | Legality and regulation questions | Core question |
| 05 | Kalshi vs Polymarket: which is better? | Prediction market platforms | Core question |
| 06 | What are prediction markets and how do they work? | Prediction market platforms | Core question |
| 07 | Can I bet on sports through prediction markets? | Sports event contracts | Core question |
| 08 | Which prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC? | Legality and regulation questions | Core question |
| 09 | Is Kalshi legal in New York? | Legality and regulation questions | Core question |
| 10 | What is Novig? | Prediction market platforms | Core question |
| 11 | Does Robinhood offer event contracts? | Economic and financial event contracts | Core question |
| 12 | What are the best alternatives to sportsbooks for sports predictions? | Comparisons with sportsbooks | Core question |
| 13 | Where can I trade on election outcomes in the US? | Election and politics markets | Added question |
| 14 | Which platforms offer contracts on presidential elections? | Election and politics markets | Added question |
| 15 | Which platforms let you trade on economic data like inflation and interest rates? | Economic and financial event contracts | Added question |
| 16 | Which brokerages offer event contracts? | Economic and financial event contracts | Added question |
| 17 | Which apps offer sports event contracts in states without legal sports betting? | Sports event contracts | Added question |
| 18 | Which sportsbooks have launched prediction market products? | Sports event contracts | Added question |
| 19 | How do prediction markets differ from sportsbooks? | Comparisons with sportsbooks | Added question |
| 20 | Which states have challenged sports event contracts? | Legality and regulation questions | Added question |
| 21 | What are the largest prediction markets by trading volume? | Prediction market platforms | Added question |
| 22 | Which prediction markets use cryptocurrency? | Prediction market platforms | Added question |
| 23 | Which forecasting platforms do researchers use to predict events? | Prediction market platforms | Added question |
| 24 | What fees do prediction market apps charge? | Comparisons with sportsbooks | Added question |
About 5W
5W is an independent PR, creative and GEO agency founded in 2003, and we get you in the chatbox. All of our work is done in house, including media relations, site building and content. Learn more about our GEO practice or write to info@5wpr.com.
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