The 5W ChatGPT Shopping Index measures which retailers and brands ChatGPT shows when shoppers ask for product recommendations. Across 34,637 U.S. prompt runs in four categories from August 3 to November 1, 2026, ChatGPT returned shopping results in 56.7% of runs. Ulta Beauty and ulta.com together hold 48.4% of cosmetics merchant share, which is their slice of all cosmetics shopping results, and four retailers hold 85.2%. This is 5W’s analysis using Profound’s tools.
By Ronn Torossian, Founder and Chairman of 5W. Last updated: November 2, 2026. Data window: August 3 to November 1, 2026. Part 2 of this series is the 5W ChatGPT Review Study, and Ronn Torossian discusses both studies in an op-ed on Everything-PR.
In this report
- What are the 10 key ChatGPT shopping statistics?
- Who are the biggest winners and surprises?
- How often does ChatGPT show shopping results?
- Which retailers win ChatGPT shopping results?
- Which brands does ChatGPT recommend most?
- Why does merchant share differ from visibility?
- What should retailers and brands do about it?
- How did 5W build the ChatGPT Shopping Index?
- Conclusion
- Frequently asked questions
What are the 10 key ChatGPT shopping statistics?
The 5W ChatGPT Shopping Index produced 10 headline statistics, led by a 56.7% shopping trigger rate and Ulta’s 48.4% share of cosmetics merchant results.
| No. | Statistic | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shopping trigger rate | ChatGPT returned shopping results in 56.7% of 34,637 prompt runs |
| 2 | Highest-triggering category | Cosmetics, at 66.8% |
| 3 | Lowest-triggering category | Golf equipment, at 43.4% |
| 4 | Ulta in cosmetics | 48.4% of merchant share, with Ulta Beauty (45.1%) and ulta.com (3.3%) combined |
| 5 | Top four cosmetics retailers | 85.2% of merchant share: Ulta, Walmart, Sephora and Target |
| 6 | Sephora in skincare and makeup | Appears in 66.0% of shopping answers but holds 24.4% of merchant share |
| 7 | Baby gear leader | Target, with 27.6% of merchant share |
| 8 | Baby gear runner-up | Nordstrom, with 22.3% of merchant share, ahead of Walmart at 15.0% |
| 9 | Golf brand leader | Callaway Golf, which appears in 70.7% of golf shopping answers |
| 10 | Highest-triggering topic | Bath and potty prompts, at 85.6% |
The 48.4% figure is merchant share inside ChatGPT’s cosmetics shopping results for the prompts 5W tracks. It is not 48.4% of all cosmetics searches, and it is not 48.4% of cosmetics sales.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Shopping result | A shopping carousel or product-comparison panel that ChatGPT shows instead of a text-only answer |
| Trigger rate | The share of prompt runs that returned a shopping result |
| Merchant share | A retailer’s slice of all shopping results in a category, which always totals 100% |
| Visibility | The share of shopping answers that mention a retailer or brand at least once, which can total more than 100% across retailers |
| Average position | The mean rank of a brand when it appears, where a lower number is better |
Who are the biggest winners and surprises?
The biggest winners are Ulta in beauty retail, Target in baby gear, SCHEELS and DICK’S Sporting Goods in golf, and Callaway Golf among brands, while Sephora, Nordstrom and Joolz are the clearest surprises.
| Finding | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Ulta: 48.4% cosmetics merchant share | The largest single-retailer slice in any category |
| Sephora: 66.0% skincare visibility, 24.4% merchant share | Often mentioned, with a smaller slice of results |
| Nordstrom: 22.3% baby gear merchant share | Ranks second, ahead of Walmart at 15.0% |
| Callaway Golf: 70.7% golf visibility | The strongest brand visibility in the index |
| Walmart: top five in all four categories | The most consistent retailer across categories |
| Good Molecules: 17.9% skincare visibility | Leads a fragmented category |
| Joolz: 1.66 average position in baby gear | Usually appears first when it appears, despite ranking fifth in visibility |
Retail winners and brand winners are separate contests. A retailer can fill the shopping results without any one manufacturer dominating the products it shows.
| Category | Retail leader (merchant share) | Brand leader (visibility) |
|---|---|---|
| Cosmetics | Ulta, 48.4% | e.l.f. cosmetics, 32.3% |
| Skincare and makeup | Ulta Beauty, 42.5% | Good Molecules, 17.9% |
| Baby gear and furniture | Target, 27.6% | Stokke, 37.6% |
| Golf equipment | SCHEELS, 24.4% | Callaway Golf, 70.7% |
The two measures are not directly comparable, because merchant share is a slice of all results and visibility is the share of answers that mention a name. Each answers a different question: which stores ChatGPT sends shoppers to, and which brands it puts in front of them.
How often does ChatGPT show shopping results?
ChatGPT returned shopping results in 56.7% of the 34,637 prompt runs, ranging from 43.4% in golf equipment to 66.8% in cosmetics.
| Category | Prompt runs | Runs with shopping results | Trigger rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cosmetics | 11,997 | 8,019 | 66.8% |
| Baby gear and furniture | 9,269 | 5,555 | 59.9% |
| Skincare and makeup | 4,851 | 2,361 | 48.7% |
| Golf equipment | 8,520 | 3,695 | 43.4% |
| All four categories | 34,637 | 19,630 | 56.7% |
The trigger rate depends on how the question is asked. Prompts about a specific product type trigger shopping results far more often than prompts that name a brand or a retailer.
| Category | Highest-triggering topic | Rate | Lowest-triggering topic | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cosmetics | Setting powder | 81.4% | Brand and retailer | 30.7% |
| Baby gear and furniture | Bath and potty | 85.6% | Brand-level | 20.5% |
Foundation (80.8%) and concealer (80.4%) prompts also trigger shopping results in more than four of five runs in cosmetics. In baby gear, kids’ travel accessories reach 80.8%, and design and interiors crossover prompts trigger shopping results only 20.5% of the time. A shopper who asks for the best setting powder gets a shopping carousel. A shopper who asks about a brand by name mostly gets a written answer.
Which retailers win ChatGPT shopping results?
Four retailers hold 85.2% of cosmetics shopping results, and in all four categories the top three retailers hold between 59.3% and 79.5% of results.
| Category | First | Second | Third | Top three combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cosmetics | Ulta 48.4% | Walmart 15.1% | Sephora 11.1% | 74.6% |
| Skincare and makeup | Ulta Beauty 42.5% | Sephora 24.4% | Target 12.5% | 79.5% |
| Baby gear and furniture | Target 27.6% | Nordstrom 22.3% | Walmart 15.0% | 64.9% |
| Golf equipment | SCHEELS 24.4% | DICK’S Sporting Goods 24.0% | Walmart 10.8% | 59.3% |
Who leads cosmetics shopping results?
Ulta leads cosmetics shopping results with 48.4% of merchant share, counting Ulta Beauty (45.1%) and ulta.com (3.3%) together.
| Rank | Retailer | Merchant share | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ulta (Ulta Beauty and ulta.com) | 48.4% | 78.3% |
| 2 | Walmart | 15.1% | 37.0% |
| 3 | Sephora (Sephora and sephora.com) | 11.1% | 25.2% |
| 4 | Target (Target and target.com) | 10.6% | 26.4% |
| 5 | Nordstrom (Nordstrom and nordstrom.com) | 3.4% | 9.9% |
Brand-owned stores listed by ChatGPT, such as e.l.f cosmetics, Tower 28 Beauty and Maybelline, each hold less than 0.3% of share. Retailers with broad catalogs take the results.
Who leads skincare and makeup shopping results?
Ulta Beauty leads skincare and makeup shopping results with 42.5% of merchant share, and Sephora is a much stronger second than in cosmetics at 24.4%.
| Rank | Retailer | Merchant share | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ulta Beauty | 42.5% | 86.4% |
| 2 | Sephora | 24.4% | 66.0% |
| 3 | Target | 12.5% | 45.3% |
| 4 | Walmart | 6.5% | 26.1% |
| 5 | CVS | 2.3% | 10.3% |
Who leads baby gear and furniture shopping results?
Target leads baby gear and furniture shopping results with 27.6% of merchant share, and Nordstrom ranks second at 22.3%, ahead of Walmart (15.0%) and Wayfair (7.3%).
| Rank | Retailer | Merchant share | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Target | 27.6% | 63.5% |
| 2 | Nordstrom | 22.3% | 47.5% |
| 3 | Walmart | 15.0% | 36.6% |
| 4 | Wayfair | 7.3% | 14.6% |
| 5 | Pottery Barn Kids | 2.3% | 8.4% |
Who leads golf equipment shopping results?
SCHEELS leads golf equipment shopping results with 24.4% of merchant share, only 0.4 points ahead of DICK’S Sporting Goods at 24.0%.
| Rank | Retailer | Merchant share | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SCHEELS | 24.4% | 53.1% |
| 2 | DICK’S Sporting Goods | 24.0% | 53.8% |
| 3 | Walmart | 10.8% | 24.1% |
| 4 | Golf Discount | 6.2% | 20.0% |
| 5 | Academy Sports + Outdoors | 4.5% | 13.3% |
Specialty golf stores such as Golf Discount, Golfio (3.5%), The Golf Guys (2.0%) and GreenTee Golf Shop (1.7%) fill much of the rest of the list. Walmart is the only retailer in the top five of all four categories, and Target appears in the top five in three.
Which brands does ChatGPT recommend most?
Brand leadership differs in every category: e.l.f. cosmetics and Maybelline lead cosmetics, Good Molecules leads skincare and makeup, Stokke leads baby gear, and Callaway Golf leads golf equipment.
| Rank | Cosmetics | Skincare and makeup | Baby gear and furniture | Golf equipment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | e.l.f. cosmetics (32.3%) | Good Molecules (17.9%) | Stokke (37.6%) | Callaway Golf (70.7%) |
| 2 | Maybelline (31.6%) | Aquaphor (17.2%) | Bugaboo (29.1%) | PING (49.9%) |
| 3 | NYX Professional Makeup (26.0%) | La Roche-Posay (16.7%) | UPPAbaby (25.0%) | TaylorMade (46.2%) |
| 4 | Milani (14.8%) | Patchology (14.4%) | Nuna (18.1%) | Wilson (23.8%) |
| 5 | essence (12.7%) | Laneige (14.3%) | Joolz (11.4%) | Cobra (19.3%) |
Affordable makeup brands lead cosmetics. The top five are e.l.f., Maybelline, NYX Professional Makeup, Milani and essence, and Fenty Beauty ranks tenth at 7.6%.
Brand names also split across listings. ChatGPT lists e.l.f. as both “e.l.f. cosmetics” (32.3%) and “e.l.f.” (20.7%), and Cobra appears as both “Cobra” (19.3%) and “Cobra Golf” (16.2%). Visibility cannot be added across name variants, because one answer can list both, so the true footprint of each brand is larger than either row shows.
Skincare and makeup is the most fragmented category. Good Molecules leads with 17.9%, and the top ten brands sit within about six points of each other. Golf has the clearest leader: Callaway Golf appears in 70.7% of golf shopping answers, while Titleist ranks sixth at 17.6%. In baby gear, Joolz ranks fifth by visibility but has the best average position among the top ten brands at 1.66, so it usually appears first when it appears.
Why does merchant share differ from visibility?
Merchant share measures how much of the shopping results a retailer fills, while visibility measures how often the retailer appears in an answer at all.
ChatGPT usually lists several retailers for one product, so visibility totals more than 100% across retailers. Merchant share always totals 100%. The gap between the two shows whether a retailer is mentioned as the main source or as one option among several.
| Category | Retailer | Visibility | Merchant share | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skincare and makeup | Ulta Beauty | 86.4% | 42.5% | Appears in most answers and holds the largest slice |
| Skincare and makeup | Sephora | 66.0% | 24.4% | Appears in two of three answers with a smaller slice |
| Cosmetics | Sephora (combined) | 25.2% | 11.1% | Appears in about one answer in four |
| Baby gear and furniture | Nordstrom | 47.5% | 22.3% | Strong second behind Target |
Sephora’s skincare numbers show why both measures matter. A retailer that appears in two thirds of answers has strong presence in ChatGPT, yet it still holds less than a quarter of the results. Moving from one option among several to the main listing is the practical goal.
What should retailers and brands do about it?
Retailers and brands should treat ChatGPT shopping results as a category-by-category channel and build their product information around the questions that trigger those results. The index points to five actions.
- Build content and product data around product-type questions. Setting powder prompts triggered shopping results 81.4% of the time, against 30.7% for cosmetics brand and retailer prompts, so product questions are where the results appear.
- Track merchant share and visibility separately. Sephora appears in 66.0% of skincare answers but holds 24.4% of share, and only the share figure shows how much of the results the retailer fills.
- Check how your name appears in shopping results. ChatGPT listed Ulta Beauty and ulta.com as separate merchants, and the split hides the real total of 48.4%.
- Benchmark against the right rivals in each category. Nordstrom outranks Walmart in baby gear, and SCHEELS and DICK’S Sporting Goods are nearly tied in golf, so the closest competitors differ from category to category.
- Watch position as well as presence. Joolz has an average position of 1.66 in baby gear, which means it tends to appear first when ChatGPT lists it.
5W is a PR, creative and AI Visibility agency, and we get you in the chatbox. The team runs consumer PR programs, beauty marketing programs, and work for baby and family brands. Related 5W research includes the Beauty AI Visibility Index, which ranks beauty brands by citation share across five AI engines, and 5W’s audit of how AI describes Sephora versus Ulta. The full series is on the 5W AI Visibility Index page.
How did 5W build the ChatGPT Shopping Index?
5W built the index from Profound’s shopping reports for ChatGPT prompt runs between August 3 and November 1, 2026, and the figures here are 5W’s analysis using Profound’s tools.
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Window | August 3 to November 1, 2026, inclusive |
| Engine and geography | ChatGPT only, United States region only; results for other AI engines or countries may differ |
| Sample | 34,637 prompt runs, of which 19,630 returned a shopping result |
| Categories | Cosmetics; skincare and makeup; baby gear and furniture (strollers, carriers, high chairs and nursery products); golf equipment |
| Prompt set | 1,114 unique prompts that 5W tracks in each category: 300 in cosmetics, 299 in baby gear and furniture, 231 in skincare and makeup and 284 in golf equipment. It is not a random sample of every shopping question |
| Run frequency | Each prompt ran about 40 times in cosmetics, 31 in baby gear and furniture, 30 in golf equipment and 21 in skincare and makeup during the window |
| Name merging | Merchant shares for Ulta Beauty and ulta.com, Sephora and sephora.com, Target and target.com, and Nordstrom and nordstrom.com were added together in cosmetics. Name variants outside the top 50 listings were not captured, so combined shares are a floor |
| Visibility | Not added across name variants; combined rows show the main listing only |
| Not measured | Sales, revenue, price, availability or checkout |
Three limits apply. The prompt set covers the categories 5W tracks in the United States and does not represent all shopping on ChatGPT. Rankings describe the window above and will move. And the index measures where ChatGPT surfaces retailers and brands, not what shoppers go on to select or spend.
Conclusion
The 5W ChatGPT Shopping Index found that a few retailers in each category hold 59.3% to 79.5% of ChatGPT shopping results, that product questions trigger those results far more often than brand questions, and that retail winners and brand winners differ in every category. The index describes where ChatGPT sends shoppers and does not test what causes a retailer or brand to appear.
5W is an AI visibility agency that helps companies get into the chatbox. 5W runs AI Search (GEO) programs for brands across consumer, B2B, financial services, healthcare, and technology, building the machine-readable footprint that gets brands cited, not just ranked. Learn more at 5wpr.com/practice/generative-engine-optimization.
Frequently asked questions
What is the 5W ChatGPT Shopping Index?
The 5W ChatGPT Shopping Index is 5W’s analysis using Profound’s tools of how often ChatGPT returns shopping results and which retailers and brands appear in them. The first edition covers 34,637 prompt runs in four categories between August 3 and November 1, 2026.
Which retailer appears most in ChatGPT shopping results?
The leading retailer depends on the category. Ulta leads beauty with 48.4% of merchant share in cosmetics and 42.5% in skincare and makeup, Target leads baby gear at 27.6%, and SCHEELS and DICK’S Sporting Goods are nearly tied in golf. Walmart is the only retailer in the top five of all four categories.
How often does ChatGPT return shopping results?
ChatGPT returned shopping results in 56.7% of the prompt runs in this index. The rate was 66.8% in cosmetics, 59.9% in baby gear and furniture, 48.7% in skincare and makeup, and 43.4% in golf equipment.
Does Ulta’s 48.4% share mean 48.4% of cosmetics sales?
No. The 48.4% figure is Ulta’s merchant share inside ChatGPT’s cosmetics shopping results for the prompts 5W tracks. It does not measure searches, sales or revenue.
Which brand is most visible in ChatGPT shopping answers?
Callaway Golf is the most visible brand in the index, appearing in 70.7% of golf shopping answers. The leaders in the other categories are e.l.f. cosmetics (32.3%) in cosmetics, Good Molecules (17.9%) in skincare and makeup, and Stokke (37.6%) in baby gear.
How can a brand get into ChatGPT shopping results?
The index measures which retailers and brands appear and does not test why. It does show that product-type prompts trigger shopping results most often and that retailers with broad catalogs hold most of the results, so brands should check how their products are listed and described by those retailers. 5W’s AI visibility agency practice helps companies get into the chatbox.
How does 5W get companies into the chatbox?
5W gets companies into the chatbox by running search, media, technology and PR together, all in house. The search team structures pages, product data and schema so ChatGPT and other AI engines can read them. The media and PR team earns coverage in the publications those engines cite, and the video, Reddit and social teams publish in the other sources they cite. 5W’s proprietary technology tracks where a brand appears in AI answers, so each change can be measured against data like the figures in this index. See 5W’s AI visibility agency practice and its GEO programs.
Does a high ChatGPT shopping rank mean more sales?
No. The index measures where ChatGPT surfaces retailers and brands, not sales. A high ranking shows strong AI visibility, and sales still depend on price, availability, reviews and checkout.
